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Saturday, October 17, 2009

Automated Expert Advisors (EAs) Are They Worth Considering?

By Ash Naeck

If you are familiar with Forex, I bet this is one of those questions that got your brain juices running.

My early days of trading were spent searching the net for the best Expert Advisor out there. I got caught up in this never ending search for the "holy-grail" trading system and believe me I wasted a lot of time and money in the process. I wish I could go back in time and change some of the decisions I made but you learn from your mistakes and as long as you do not repeat those same mistakes again you are on the right track.

What makes Expert Advisors so attractive?

Below are some of the main reasons why traders are attracted to Automated Expert Advisors:

- No emotion involved

- Less emotion

- More time to relax

- Emotion free

- Doesn't require constant monitoring

- No need for experience

- No experience required

The above, outline the main points why traders seek the use of an Automated Expert Advisor. They do look attractive when put that way; however you should also consider the negative aspects as well.

If you have done your home-work, you would know by now that there are numerous automated Forex providers on the net. They all claim the same thing, to make insane money in no time. Some of their famous selling pitches include:

- Make money on autopilot - No experience required

- No experience needed- start making money in minutes

- Make $1000 on autopilot every day

- Robot with 100% success rate turns $100 to $1000 in a month

If all these were true we would all be filthy rich by now and I wouldn't have spent thousands of dollars on useless Expert Advisors that do not work. The reality is that most of those expert advisors are in plain English B.S. The chance of you losing money is much higher than you making money.

I do hope you are lucky enough to have come across this article before making any hasty decisions in purchasing a Forex Robot that promises to make you 500%+ return a month. If such a robot existed all the major banks and financial institutions would sack their FX traders and use those systems instead. They will save a colossal amount of money on man power and on top of it all will be making astounding returns every month.

The fact is that banks and the big institutions rely heavily on their currency traders to take advantage of the Forex market. They understand that the currency market is way too unpredictable and volatile to allow a robot to be in control. Market conditions change all the time and the only way to adapt to those changes is to have a human mind in control. A robot for instance cannot bend the rules and thus does not cope well if conditions of market changes violently.

Forex robots are many a time designed my mathematicians or engineers who believe they cracked the code to Forex trading. Well no offence to them but if they have already cracked the code, why am I still not profitable. You see the nature of the Forex market is such that changes in market conditions cannot be predicted. This is due to news, catastrophes, political changes etc Do you believe those robots can take all those changes into account?

The following are some of the major points you need to clear out if you are thinking of purchasing a Forex robot:

- Who developed the system? (make sure he/she is a well-known Forex trader with substantial experience in Forex trading)

- Has the system been tested on a live account? If yes what are the monthly returns.

- How long has the system been in operation?(2+ years)

- Monthly ROI

- Maximum draw-down.

If all the above questions are ticked then you got yourself a potential winner.

In my early days, I spent a considerable amount of money searching for the right expert advisor. To cut a long story short I ended up with less money than what was promised by the people selling those robots. I hit rock bottom at that stage and nearly gave up on those so called Expert Advisors when a veteran trader I knew advised me to try a product designed by a guy named Ashkan bolour.

At this point I had no clue who this guy was, so after some research I came to know that he was a highly respected and successful Forex trader. He had featured in many trading shows and books and was a veteran money manager. He had an automated system that had good reviews and which seemed fairly priced. So I decided to give it a shot.

All my skepticism was left behind when I started seeing the power of his system. My profits were consistent and my account was growing gradually. The returns were realistic and the draw-downs low. If you are looking for a good system with decent monthly returns, do yourself a favor and try Ashkan Bolour's system, the FXprofit Mountain. You may fall in love with this robot. - 23218

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How To Approach Real Property Investment

By Arthur Butler

Television programs about real estate investment often make it sound too good to be true. In order to succeed you need to be able to separate the facts from the myths.

MYTH #1: You can become an overnight millionaire by making investments in properties.

However, in reality, real estate investments, like any other business venture, take months to begin making you serious money. And if you hope to succeed, you need to put plenty of time into planning before you make your first purchase.

MYTH #2: All you have to do is buy a property and do a little bit of work on it.

If you don't plan properly, often you find yourself overspending. If you put more money into a property than is reasonable, you won't be able to fix the property up or invest in any other properties.

Once you have your budget set, consider the type of property you want to buy. You may be interested in piece of real estate flipping--fixing up low-cost properties to sell at high profit. If so, your best bets will probably not be located in the same neighborhoods as piece of real estates meant to be used as rental properties or converted to bed-and-breakfasts.

It is often wise to buy properties that fit more than one purpose. If you buy a house to re-rent and nobody is interested in living in it, you end up stuck with a property that isn't making you money. So always make an alternate plan for any property you are considering buying.

This is also why it's important to research properties prior to purchase. Learning about the home's history, the type of neighborhood, and how costly it will be to maintain or repair will help you avoid making foolish purchases.

In order to be successful at real estate investment, you need to have a lot of patience. Real estate investment can make you a lot of money, to be sure, but like all legitimate business enterprises it takes time to establish yourself. Don't go into it expecting overnight success.

House flipping--buying low and selling high--is popular thanks to the news media. However, the entire real estate investment industry does not revolve around this practice. Many people rent out properties or convert them into bed-and-breakfasts. It is a good practice to have a back-up plan for making money off a given piece of real estate in case renters aren't interested or you can't afford significant improvements.

Real estate investment can make you plenty of money. But it is not a get-rich-quick scheme or a magical cure to your economic problems. It is a job, and you have to put hard work in to get the results you want. If you plan intelligently, you can make a comfortable profit off of your understanding of the real estate market. - 23218

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In's And Out's Of Bargain Property

By Doc Schmyz

Home foreclosures and fixer-uppers have long been a focus of many real estate investors looking to make big profits. Of course, if the target property doesn't meet certain criteria, an investor can lose their investment as well as any profit that was to be gained

Use a step by step mind set. "Go by the numbers" when reviewing all the areas of the investment that you want to focus on here are a few things to think about and add to your list.

Please Note: The following elements discussed are not listed in any particular order. Nor do they all hold the same value in relation to each other, but they must ALL be considered in their entirety. The property should meet at least one of the criteria, and should have no unjustifiable issues in any one single area.

Doc's List:

KNOW WHY ON PRICE

Price is the first thing and investor sees.

They search for properties they think are selling below market value. This makes sense buy low and sell high right?? However think about the reasons behind the sales price? What is their motivation? Are they relocating or in financial duress? The 3 D's come in to play here most of the time. (Death Divorce, Debt)

If not, there may be problems with the property that require major expense to correct. Structural problems such as a cracked foundation or outdated plumbing and electrical wiring. The last two are VERY common in older craftsman homes from the 30-50's. CONSIDER HOLDING COSTS

Holding costs are one of the biggest profit killers to investors. Taxes, mortgage, commissions to agents (both selling and buying) gas, and electric...all these things add up...and FAST.

A poor understanding of the current market value is another major deal killer. Remember market value is an educated guess at best. No one really knows until the appraisal is complete.

Check out other property near the one youre looking at investing in. what prices are they pulling in? Are they the same size? Lot size close to the one youre looking at? Same style of structure?

TERMS AND CONDITIONS CAN HELP YOU

What areas can you leverage besides price and location? Financing?

If you have the means you can pay full price but jockey for a FAR lower interest rate or a smaller down payment. Over time your cash flow could be in the black faster due to the terms you set up.

KNOW THE LOCAL MARKET

Experienced real estate investors try to learn everything about the market they are shopping in. Sometimes its the small details that give the property you're looking at the best chance to appreciate. For example: How close is the nearest church? Is the area family friendly? What is the local crime rate... is it close to good school? Where is the closest Fire/police station? Does the neighborhood have a community watch program? Next factor in the local floor plans that surround your target property. Was the last owner primarily concerned with vacancy rates, so they keep prices low instead of upgrading the property? In contrast, your research shows that particular upgrades like air-conditioning, second bathrooms, or enhanced security allow for both lower vacancies and higher rental rates.

LOCATION IS NO TO BE OVER LOOKED

If your shooting for a long term tenet or residence then location is the second most critical thing to look at...however if you have a chance to turn a good profit for a ugly house in a less than 4 star area...that profit might out shine a nice little bungalow on the beach.

FIX AND FLIP AND FORECLOSURES

In the case of a fix and flip and sometimes a foreclosure. It is the job of the investor to factor in the repair costs. A keen eye can save you lots of money in a very short time. (Not to mention a good understanding of home repair work)

Fixer properties are a treasure trove to a savvy investor. If you have a good eye for details and can spot maintance problems you can make a nice return on your investment. Things like a bad roof, poor plumbing or a bad foundation can be very costly to repair. Once you have an idea of what youre looking at for repair cost, do yourself a favor and add a little buffer say 5%...just to be safe.

GET IN A ZONE WITH ZONING

Make sure you research the zoning for the property BEFORE you buy it. If you are thinking of adding a second floor or a granny flat...is the zoning available? Make sure you know before you commit to doing anything that will add or change the SQ footage of the property.

These are often bargains because the price is based on current use. So the single unit residential is priced low while the double unit duplex could be sold higher or rented out. Harder to find as developers stay more aware of zoning allowances these days.

Garages converted without permits, Granny flats that get added...etc...etc. These are common examples. - 23218

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Understanding Fibonacci Trading (Part I)

By Ahmad Hassam

What is Fibonacci forex? Did you see the movie, The DaVinci Code? You will find a scene in the movie where the characters talk about the Fibonacci number as part of a clue or code of some sort.

Fibonacci trading techniques are based on a series that was discovered in the 13th century by an Italian Leonardo de Pisa. Over the years many interesting characteristics have been discovered on a few ratios derived from this series. The Fibonacci series starts with 0 and 1 and goes out to infinity with the next number in the series being derived by adding the prior two. What are Fibonacci numbers? For example, 0+1=1, 1+1=2, 1+2=3, 2+3=5, 3+5=8, 5+8=13, 8+13=21, 13+21=34, 21+34=55, 34+55=89, 55+89=144, 89+144=233, 144+233=377.

So the Fibonacci series is like this; 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377,610, 987..to infinity. What is so fascinating about this series is that there is a constant found within the series as it progresses to infinity. This constant is known as the Golden Ratio, Golden Mean or Divine Proportion.

Take any two consecutive numbers in the series after the first few and you will find the Golden Mean by dividing the higher number with the lower number. For example, 89/55=1.618, 144/89=1.618, 233/144=1.618, 377/233=1.618, 610/377=1.618, 987/610=1.618 and so on. The inverse of 1.618 is 0.618.

What is most important to forex traders is that applying these ratios can help identify key support and resistance zone in the market and therefore determine key trading opportunities or setups. The Golden Ratio can also be found in many places in nature like flowers, shells, fossils etc.

Thus the application of Fibonacci ratios can give you the edge as a forex trader if you use the Fibonacci trading technique properly. We have already discussed the Golden Ratios 1.618 and its inverse 0.618. The main ratios used in everyday analysis are 0.382, 0.50, 0.618, 0.786, 1.000, 1.272 and 1.618.

Since you are trying to look into a type of technical analysis, it is assumed that you have a computer, a market data source such as quote.com and a technical analysis program to manipulate that data. You should be proficient with the technical analysis program.

There are three types of Fibonacci price relationship namely, retracements, extensions and price projections (sometimes also called price objectives). We will look into each type of these relationships individually. The Fibonacci price analysis calculations can be done by hand as well but they are time consuming and tedious.

Support is when the buying pressure overcomes the selling pressure and the decline in the price is reversed at the support level. The definition of a support is the price area below the current market where you will look for a possible termination of the decline and where you would consider to becoming a buyer of whatever currency pair you are trading. Each of these Fibonacci price relationships will be setting up potential support or potential resistance in the chart that you are analyzing.

Similarly resistance is price where the sellers overcome the buyers and the price starts to decline after reaching a high. It is the price area above the current market where you would look for the possible termination of a rally and consider being a seller. - 23218

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Learning Fibonacci Trading (Part II)

By Ahmad Hassam

Fibonacci Price Retracements: How do you identify a possible support level once the market pulls back from a high? Fibonacci price retracements are run from a prior low to high swing using the ratios 0.382, 0.50, 0.618 and 0.786 to identify possible support levels as the market pulls back from a high.

Retracements are also run from a prior high to low swing using these same ratios looking resistance as the market bounces from a low. Most basic technical analysis software will run the Fibonacci retracement levels for you when you choose the swing you want to run them from.

Multiply the length of the swing (from low to high or high to low) by the retracement ratios and then subtract the result from the high if you are running low to high swings or add the results to the low if you are running high to low swings in case you want to understand how to calculate the Fibonacci price retracements yourself.

Fibonacci Price Extensions: It is important to know possible price extensions to make stop loss and take profit decisions. Fibonacci price extensions are almost similar to the Fibonacci Price retracements in that they are run from the prior lows to highs or from prior highs to lows using only two data points to run the price relationship.

There are times when a pullback can retrace beyond the original starting point and exceed 100 percent of the initial wave or trend. So a Fibonacci extension is essentially a correction that exceeds the low of the initial trend. What is the difference between the Fibonacci Price Extensions and Fibonacci Price retracements? The difference between the Fibonacci price extensions and the Fibonacci price retracements is that we are running the relationship of a prior swing that are less than 100% or retracing the price move whereas with the extensions we are running the relationships of a prior swing that are extending beyond 100% of it.

Fibonacci Price extensions are run from prior low to high swings using the ratios 1.272 and 1.618 for potential support. They are run from prior high to low swings using the ratios 1.272 and 1.618 for potential resistance. These two techniques are named differently to indicate whether the price relationship is occurring within the prior swing or extending beyond it.

Fibonacci Price Projections: When you are setting your Fibonacci projection levels, you base your levels on the previous retracement. We use 1.00 and 1.618 ratios to run the projections. Fibonacci price projections are run from three data points and are comparing swings in the same direction. They are run from a prior low to high swing and then projected from another low for possible resistance or they are run from prior high to low swing and projected from another high for possible support. Seeing how the price reacts with each of these Fibonacci price projection and retracement levels should also give you a lot of confidence as an investor because you can see that you have multiple price points at which you can enter a trade. You dont always have to get in right at the beginning of a movement.

Price clusters identify key support and resistance zones that can be considered to be trade setups. A price cluster is the coincidence of at least three Fibonacci relationships that come together within a relatively tight range.

Three is just the minimum number required to meet the definition. A price cluster can also develop with a coincidence of more than three price relationships. You may see five to ten price relationships come together in a relatively tight range. There are times when you see these large clusters develop not too far from the current market activity and they tend to act like a magnet for price. Now Fibonacci price analysis will become very easy for you with a little bit of practice on a good technical trading software. - 23218

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