What Impacts the Price of a Stock? How Useful is Historical Data?

By Marv Doniger

There are a myriad of factors that are commonly used by investors to evaluate potential stock investments. These investment opportunities are often identified through the use of the numerous stock screeners that are readily available to investors. Common searches seek to identify companies that have a low Price Earnings, Price to Book Value, or Price to Cash Flow Ratio; high Dividend Yields; high Returns on Assets, Invested Capital, or Earnings; low Debt to Equity; and high Cash balances. In fact there are pre-defined stock screeners such as the Contrarian Strategy, Dogs of the Dow, Momentum Stocks, New 52-Week Highs, etc. that can be used to identify stocks in which to invest. The implicit assumption in using stock screeners is that there is a relationship between this data and the future performance of a stock. Should this assumption be valid then all one would have to do is run his/her magic screener and buy those stocks with his/her favorite criteria such as low Price Earnings Ratio and high Dividend Yield. In order to validate the premise that the data obtained from stock screeners influences the price of a company's stock, the change in the price of the Dow 30 Industrial stocks from 1999 to 2009 was compared to changes in the Returns they generated, their Financial Condition and Performance over that same time period. Returns included Returns on Equity, Invested Capital and Assets as well as Dividends paid to investors. Financial Condition included Current Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, along with Interest Coverage and Dividend Coverage. Performance included Sales, Earnings, Book Value and Cash Flow trends. A correlation analysis was conducted to determine the relationship of the price of each of the companies comprising the Dow Industrials and these factors. The hypothesis being that there was a statistically valid relationship between these factors.

As the following chart shows, dividends had a statistically significant impact on the change in the price of the stock of Exxon Mobil, Hewlett-Packard, Merck, and Verizon. It had a moderate impact on the price of the stock of Alcoa, Bank of America, DuPont, General Electric and JP Morgan Chase. Earnings had a strong impact on the price of Citigroup's and Exxon Mobil's stock. The stock price of Caterpillar, Chevron, Johnson & Johnson, McDonalds, Proctor & Gamble, and United Technologies was moderately impacted by earnings. Price changes in the stock of Exxon Mobil were statistically significantly impacted by its Dividends, Cash, Earnings, Book Value and Cash Flow and moderately impacted by its Return on Invested Capital, Dividend Coverage and Sales. Another company whose price movement could be partially explained by change in these factors is Caterpillar. There were moderately statistically significant relationships between its price and its Returns on Equity, Investment and Assets; its Interest and Dividend Coverage; as well as its Earnings and Cash Flow. Perhaps one of the most astonishing results is that there were no statistically meaningful relationships between the changes in the price of the stocks of 3M, American Express, AT&T, Boeing, Intel, IBM, Kraft, Microsoft, Pfizer, Coca-Cola, Home Depot, and Wal-Mart and the measures of Returns, Financial Condition, and Performance used in the analysis. To put it another way, the price movement of 40 percent of the Dow Industrials bore no statistically meaningful relationship to changes in these factors.

FACTORS AFFECTING STOCK PRICE of DOW 30 INDUSTRIALS RETURNS FINANCIAL CONDITION PERFORMANCE Dow 30 Components Company Equity Invested Capital Assets Dividends Current Ratio Debt to Equity Interest Coverage Dividend Coverage Cash Sales Earnings Book Value Cash Flow 3m Co Alcoa Inc ● American Express Company, AT&T Inc. Bank of America Corporation ● Boeing Co., Caterpillar Inc. ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Chevron Corp ●● ● ● ●● ● Citigroup, Inc. ●● ● E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co ● Exxon Mobil Corp ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ●● General Electric Company ● General Motors Corporation ● Hewlett-Packard Co. ●● ● Intel Corporation International Business Machines Johnson & Johnson ● ● ● JP Morgan & Chase & Co ● Kraft Foods Inc. McDonald's Corporation ● ● Merck & Co., Inc. ●● Microsoft Corporation, Pfizer Inc, The Coca-Cola Company, The Home Depot, Inc. The Procter & Gamble Company ● ● ● ●● United Technologies Corporation ● ● ● Verizon Communications ●● Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Impact ● Moderate ●● Significant Data Standard & Poor's

Based on the previous examination of the relationships between the price of the Dow Industrials stocks and certain measurements of their historical data, it should be apparent that stock screeners, in and of themselves, are not sufficient tools to use in selecting potential stock investments. Even if there were statistically significant relationships between the historical price movement and the data used in the stock screener, it does not mean that those relationships would continue in the future. Wall Street constantly warns that past performance is not indicative of future results, yet investors search the past to divine the future. It is like driving in traffic by looking through the rear view mirror and missing the collision ahead that is about to happen. As events of the past eighteen months have proven, highly improbable events can occur and inflict unforeseen casualties on investors. Since equity markets are supposedly discounting future events, investors should look through the windshield to see what is ahead of them and use the rear view mirror to see if the vehicle behind them has any relevance to their ultimate destination.

Marvin Doniger, Managing Partner of Doniger & Associates, is the author of A Common Sense Road Map to Uncommon Wealth, which is a treatise on managing careers and finances. His perspectives have been developed from his lifelong study of investing, his actual experiences as a registered representative, an individual investor, as well as from working for large companies in industry and as a management consultant to Fortune 500 companies. He is a leader in his industry. - 23218

About the Author:

Mr. Doniger received a Masters in Business Administration from Columbia University Graduate School of Business and a Bachelor of Science Degree in Mechanical Engineering from Tufts University. He has taught undergraduate and graduate level courses in production control, inventory management, information technology and finance at Fitchburg State College and Webster University. CONTACT INFORMATION: Tel: 949-661-5456 Email: Marv@DonigerAssociates.com www.donigerassociates.com

Forex Fapturbo Review- Creating Wealth Online

By Mike Chomelli

Becoming rich online is something that many people dream of. Being wealthy is in fact a reality for a number of internet entrepreneurs each and every day. A number of people are becoming successful in achieving this dream. Not only are these people generating a lot of income, but they are also making their online business their primary source of income.

There are a number of ways to become wealthy online but for the purpose of this article we will focus in on one type of method. One very popular way of making money online is through something called FOREX. So what exactly does FOREX stand for?

Forex stands for something called the Foreign Exchange Market. It is one of the largest financial markets in the world today. Its volume includes over $2 trillion per day.

When we compare this figure to the New York Stock Exchange, this comes out to over three times the total amount of stocks and futures combined. Forex is one of the most effective and efficient methods of creating wealth today.

How can someone get involved with this? All you need is an internet connection and a computer, both of which you should have if you are already reading this. Rather than going into great detail within this article, you can continue to find out more about this topic at Fapturbo below.

What is Fapturbo? It is simply a Forex Robot that is capable of doubling your cash every single month. It is the most effective way of building wealth through the Foreign Exchange Market.

If trading through Forex is not your thing you can also try taking a look at Online Wealth Programs to find out about all of the other programs you can start using today to start making that online income you deserve. The site contains a list of some of the most popular online systems you can use to making money on the internet. Feel free to browse through the site.

After utilizing just one of these programs, you will be able to expand your current source of income. - 23218

About the Author:

Looking to overflow your bank account? You can learn more about the Forex Fapturbo Review Here. Also, if trading is not what interests you, take a look at the Best 4 Internet Online Wealth Systems that people are utilizing to make money every single day. Free offers are included on there as well!!

Futures Trading (Part II)

By Ahmad Hassam

Apart from professional traders and speculators, futures trading is done by most of the people like you and me who are interested in making money in the markets. Like stocks, Buy low and sell high, is the basic premise in futures trading as well.

What is different from stock trading is that you can trade futures with leverage on either long or the short positions. This introduces an additional element of risk not present in the stock market.

Another major difference in futures trading with stock trading is that there is no uptick rule in futures trading. This means that you can easily enter into a position to capture a downward move in prices with no restriction. Thus, it is as easy to sell short as it is to buy long.

How do you manage to survive at futures trading even when you are not particularly good at it? How do you become good at futures trading? The answer is simple. You should have the money first to open a margin account. Then you should have the ability to develop a trading plan that enables you to keep making money in the market long enough to capitalize your next big move.

So you wont last long in the market if you dont have a good trading plan. And you wont be able to trade futures if you dont have enough money. The chances are your money will quickly disappear if you start with a small trade size.

You must know this thing that only 5% of the futures traders succeed and 95% of the people trading futures lose money consistently. You need to have at least $25,000 in your account in order to start trading futures. However, $5,000 is the minimum with which you can start trading futures.

Make sure that you go into trading futures contracts with realistic expectations and you understand the risks involved when you start trading futures. You can take advantage of the managed futures accounts if you are not sure how to handle the risk involved in futures trading.

So in order to trade futures, you need money, patience, knowledge and technology to be successful. Without money you cant open a position and without knowledge you wont know when to enter and when to exit. Trading futures contracts is truly a hybrid that uses both fundamental and technical analysis. Only proceed ahead if you have these skills in abundance.

You need to know the futures contract specifications. There are seasonal tendencies in the markets that you need to be aware of. The fundamental side of futures trading involves getting to know the industry in which you are making trades. You should also know the important reports that usually affect the industry in which you are planning to trade futures contracts. You need to keep an eye on the release of those reports.

You should determine your trading style. Are you are scalper? Are you a day trader? Are you a swing trader or are you a position trader? You will need to develop your own trading style whether it is momentum trading, scalping, day trading or swing trading. Your personality will determine your trading style. Now, the technical side of futures trading tells you what the market will do in response to the fundamentals.

Once you know your trading goals, establish a trading plan for getting there. Dont try to conquer every type of analysis at once. Instead, focus on mastering one item at a time"maybe concentrating only on chart patterns such as bull and bear flags, for instance. - 23218

About the Author:

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading futures and currencies. Trade Dow Futures and S&P Futures!

Save Thousands For Your Retirement With Someone Else's Money

By Julie Broad

I am the big sister to two kid brothers. Like any older sister, I worry about my brothers, even now. Most of all, I worry about their futures. The one closest to my age is the one I worry about the most lately.

You see, he is a talented carpenter. Before that he worked as a chef " and was amazing. He is also extremely good at rebuilding and repairing cars. Anything that requires patience and attention to detail seems to be something he is exceptionally good at. That is, except when it comes to his finances.

Since he's still young (in his early 30s), he feels there's lots of time to work and make money to put away for his retirement. I wish he didn't think this way. The government may not take care of us when we're older, so the time to start saving for your retirement is now.

As his big sister, I decided to help him out by making a plan. My brother has three cars, and he certainly doesn't need all three. I convinced him that one of the cars should be sold. The money he makes from the sale can be put into a savings account, and he'll also be able to start saving about $500 a month.

He can also take on side jobs. People are always asking for help with building fences or kitchen renovations. He doesn't have to work every weekend, and in a year he could have enough saved to put 10% down on a beat up house could be bought for around $200,000.

For a couple of years, he can live there while fixing it up and continuing to save more money. Then, he will turn that house into a rental property, renting it out for about $1,400/month. He then buys and moves into a new property that he will call home.

Now, keeping this really simple, lets look at what my brother has when he retires in 25 years:

If he added $25,000 value to the house by fixing it up, and the property goes up every year at 4% appreciation, then in 25 years time the property will be worth almost $600,000. And the best part is that the tenants paid the mortgage for him! That's like having someone else contribute around $1,900 a month to his retirement savings ($576,000 divided by 25 years divided by 12 months).

If you're wondering where the 4% comes from, properties increase in value on the average of 4% every year, even with ups and downs in the real estate market. But even if it doesn't increase quite that much, the tenants have still paid off the mortgage over the 25 year time span. The rent from the property that he continues to collect (which would be up to about $2,350/month if rent and expenses increase at a 4% rate as well) will go directly toward his retirement.

Plus, he will also have his main residence paid off by then, giving him over $1 Million in property for his retirement. What an easy way to get someone else to pay for a big part of his retirement!

When I explained this to my brother, he sold one of his cars! And with the money he earned helping us with our property, he's already putting together a nice little down payment for a home. - 23218

About the Author:

Learn How to Retire with Real Estate with Julie's free Real Estate Investing Starter Tips Guide. Learn how to create financial freedom, positive cashflow and massive wealth with tips like: How to find quality real estate, finding and keeping great tenants, and easy ways to make more money with real estate.

Jumpstart to Learn Forex Trading

By Zita Von Snyder

You can learn forex trading with some good research and investing in a good forex trading course. Stay ahead of the pack and trade like the pros by studying forex charts, market trends (current and past), know the currency you are trading including the factors that move that currency up or down and the risks involved in forex trading. Putting in the time and research can have big rewards when you learn forex trading.

Learn forex trading quickly by taking a good forex trading course. Here a couple of tips on forex trading courses:

Why do you need a forex trading course? To really learn forex you need to understand charting, forex terminology, and some of the common processes pertaining to forex trading. A forex trading course will provide all of this and more so you can learn forex.

The world of forex demands discipline, the ability to move quickly and the knowledge of the risks involved. To learn forex you need to learn to manage the stress and emotions that can come along with forex trading. A good forex trading course teaches these principles.

When looking at a forex trading course you should consider some of the following attributes to learn forex:

*The Basics of Forex Trading-A basic overview of forex terminology including margins, types of orders, leveraging trades, how to understand types of analysis of charts and other indicators.

*Analytics-Technical and fundamental analysis should be discussed along with the software and or tools you will need to use when trading forex. A good forex trading course will help you learn forex analysis which can keep your losses low and your profits high.

*Values of Forex Trading- Discipline and commitment are invaluable to a good forex trader. These theories should be discussed in length in a good forex trading course. If you learn to control the emotion, you can learn forex trading successfully.

Learn forex trading with the help of a trading course that offers simulated trading boards or rooms or even real time trading gives you invaluable experience. As a student being able to discuss what you have learned, your trading strategy, or views on the latest indicators will keep you ahead of the pack in the forex market.

So getting ahead of the game if you want to learn forex can be achieved! Whether you decide to invest in a forex trading course or not, research and knowledge are what can give you the edge in the worlds largest financial market. Invest the time, learn the language, study both technical and fundamental analysis, manage both your emotions and your risks and you can learn forex trading. - 23218

About the Author:

Zita Von Snyder, a forex trader and financial advisor for over a decade, has provided some helpful hints to Learn Forex Trading. Zita offers tips on finding a good Forex Trading Course as well as the benefits it provides.