Understanding Kelly Ratio

By Ahmad Hassam

In one of my articles, I talked about the criteria for developing a good mechanical trading system. There are many factors to consider while testing and evaluating a mechanical trading system. The important question is how to develop a trading system, evaluate it and then apply it with real money.

We need to not only know that the trading system is profitable for each trading system that we test. But we should also know whether it is profitable with limited equity swings. We should know does the trading system have excessive drawdown periods?

Three of the most important elements of mechanical trading systems are: 1) Rules for exiting at profit targets. 2) Rules for exiting at loss targets or how much loss is permissible and 3) Clear cut rules for entry and exit for each trade.

Do losses exceed gains more than what is tolerable in the long run? Does the trading system experience periods of time that result in significant losses that give back those gains when a string of multiple winners and substantial profits accrue?

John Kelly while working at AT&T Bell Labs had developed the formula in 1956 now known by his name. A money management tool used by system traders is the Kelly Formula or Ratio. Most traders do not know when to correctly add on a trading position.

Gamblers realized its potential as an optimal betting system in horse racing. It soon became popular with the gamblers. This formula enabled gamblers to maximize the size of their bets on consecutive races.

Gamblers would use the Kelly Formula to determine how much to parlay winnings into the next bet. Kelly Formula is used by many traders to determine how much money to place on the next trade taking into account the historical performance of the trading system.

Kelly Formula is K=W-[(1-W)/R] where K is the Kelly Ratio percent value. W is the winning probability and it is the probability that any given trade that you make will return a positive amount. R is the Win/Loss Ratio. It is the total positive trade amounts divided by the total negative trade amount.

Kelly Ratio tells you what you should ideally be willing to risk on each trade to maximize your total returns in terms of the percent of your total account. Suppose K is 25% then you can risk 25% of your account on each trade.

Many traders argue that the Kelly Formula gives too high a figure. To be on the safe side you should half the ratio. If K is 25%, you should half it to 12.5%. It means you should not risk more than 12.5% of your account on a single trade.

Kelly Formula can help you in comparing two trading systems. You can use it in deciding which one is better in the long run. You should look for a trading system that has the highest Kelly Ratio.

Back testing is used to evaluate the historical performance of a trading system. It shows the strength and weaknesses of each trading system in the long run. You can use the back testing results in the Kelly Formula.

So back testing combined with the Kelly Formula can help you achieve in most market conditions, the highest trading profits with the lowest risks by choosing a trading system that is the best. - 23218

About the Author:

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading stocks and forex. Know The Candlestick Patterns. Learn Forex Trading.

Learning the Tools That Are Necessary to Trade Effectively on the Forex Market

By Alex Miller

If you are just getting started trading on the Forex market, you might be surprised to learn that there are some tools out there which will help to automate many of the processes that you are doing. Here is a look at a few different tools that are available for you to use, some of which may be able to help you in your every day trading practices. Use these tools properly, and you may be able to make more trades in less time.

The first type of Forex tool that we are going to discuss is the platform. This is one of the most important things for you to understand whenever you are starting with your trading practices. The Forex platform is going to give you access to a broker who can place the trades for you and all of the trades will take place in real time.

Forex systems and forex platforms are generally what these different tools are referred to as being called. You can lump them all into the same category but in actuality, there are several different things that these tools do which make them specific from each other. Here are three different types of tools that you can use, and another type of tool that you may not have considered before. They can help you in your everyday training.

Of all of the different tools that are available, The Forex Autopilot System is by and large the most popular that is out there. It is a fully automated tool that runs on your computer and makes the trades for you without any interaction on your part. There are several different tools which claim to be able to do this, but this is the one that seems to be the most popular because of its accuracy. Use this tool as it was intended, and you will quite likely prosper.

You really need to make sure that you are being cautious whenever you are using this or any other type of automated system on the Forex market. Regardless of whether they say that it is automated or not, it still should receive a little bit of interaction from you to make sure that it is running in the right direction. Taking yourself out of the mix and allowing it to go rogue may be a poor decision, and one that drains your account quickly.

Another type of system that is generally employed helps you to be able to get an overview of where the market might be moving. The way that it does this is by looking at things that are known as forex signals, happenings within the market which can indicate which direction it is turning. Although it certainly is important for you to look at this, as it can make you successful, you also need to keep in mind that the market can be volatile. Use these with caution, but make sure that you use them.

It doesn't matter whether you are using a fully automated program or if you are trying to learn from a book that is sitting in front of you on your desk, there really is no substitute for your own mind whenever it comes to trading on the Forex market. The reason why this is the case is because the knowledge that you take in is going to be directly proportionate to the success that you receive in return. - 23218

About the Author:

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Use These Tips To Make Money Day Trading!

By Grant Dougan

Day trading is becoming an increasingly hot way for people to earn extra money. There are people who treat it as a full time profession while others use it as a method to make additional cash. There's a lot of people making outstanding cash with day trading which explains why many people are tempted to try it out.

Naturally you you won't be able to just start and make giant money without understanding the markets! You want to have a certain level of knowledge when you start so you can make the most of your money.

The way to earn money in stock trading is to buy low, and sell high. So how do you know when to invest in a certain stock?

Below are some outstanding tips for you to earn money with day trading.

Be prepared ahead of time. You need to be up and ready before executing your first trade. You don't need to spend lots of time with this, but have a few key websites you keep up with and it's wise to observe a couple of organizations closely. You need to have a strong overview of the happenings in the stock market.

You don't want to focus on stocks that have minimal price movement. In day trading, money is generated by buying and selling stocks that are frequently changing in price. In day trading you are buying and selling stocks every day which means you need to be invested in stocks with daily price variations.

Increase your math skills. You'll want to be capable of analyzing trending and financial data at a glance. You won't need to be a master mathematician, but you must understand what the financial numbers mean so that you can make fast, sound assessments.

Stay collected and determined. You should keep your emotions cool to not allow them change your judgment. Whether you are too excited about a giant profit, or largely defeated about a loss, either of these reactions can hinder your ability to stay level headed, take educated actions, and think clearly.

If you use these trading secrets, you could be on your way to excellent income with day trading.. When you have the right tools and strategies, you can experience the unbelievable earnings potential that day trading has to offer. - 23218

About the Author:

You can find all sorts of Day Trading Tips out there so it's easy to start educating yourself about this exciting way to earn an income. Click Here for information on a trading system that has been making many people a healthy income.

Perdido Key Florida Property

By Chris Linch

If I was going to buy a condo anywhere in this country it would be Perdido Key Florida. There are a few reasons. Number one is that there are exceptionally few hotels in the area, so you can rent them out. The view on the coastline is just stunning over the Gulf of Mexico. You are close to both Alabama and Florida and even Mississippi.

I one time traveled to this area for the Mullet Toss. It is a beach party where people throw a fish from Florida to the Alabama line. It was a extraordinary beach party, with a lot of things to do. The thing I love about this area is that it is so casual. You can go everywhere in just a bathing suit, or a t shirt. You dont need to be all fancied up to go out to have a meal.

If you are looking to travel to this area you are going to rent a condo. There plainly are no hotels in this city that I am conscious of. Everything there is vacation rentals. This is not a terrible thing, because you can really get a nice place right on the beach with a balcony for less than you can get a hotel room.

There are many property managers that run the condos, so if you are looking for an investment this is a great place to invest. You can by a condo, and then take a vacation to it for a few weeks a few times a year. Then the other 48+ weeks you can rent it out like a hotel room by hiring one of these property management firms.

The only competition you have is other condo owners. This allows you to travel free, and you can actually depreciate the cost of the condo over time since it is an investment property.

There are some tips though if you can invest and you are just traveling to the area. Most of the hotel websites that rent hotels, also rent condos in the area just like hotel rooms. You can save a lot of money by simply getting a condo this way.

Simply visit a discount hotel site and search for Perdido Key Florida and book yourself in one of those beach front condos. Keep in mind they are STILL rebuilding from the mutilation of Hurricane Ivan. It is still just a beautiful place to stay. - 23218

About the Author:

Chris Linch is an avid traveler and author. Chris spends most of his time providing sound advice and information to travelers. Chris has traveled all over the world and writes not only about his experiences, but how to save on travel. Chris also runs a money saving website where you can find Cheap Hotel Rates among other travel deals.

Forex Trading Softwares - Bane Or Boon?

By Bart Icles

Forex trading software's are great assets to have when one is deeply involved in Forex trading. These software tools are easy to understand and use and can greatly help any trader increase their money making chances. The advantage of having these tools is that it only requires some minimal effort to do, as the software handles most of the complicated analysis and interpretation of the market charts.

Not many people are aware of the benefits such Forex software can have with regards to their Forex education and training. It has only been of late that most experienced Forex traders have started to shed light on the secret methods they've been using in trading. This method utilizes a formulated set of advanced algorithms integrated into their strategies to help predict market trend changes.

Some programs are only able to function in a semi-automated capacity - which you should not use to invest in due to its limitations. You should find a good one that offers full functionality for better results. So it is to important to know which programs are worth spending your money on are, and which one's to avoid.

Trading software programs like Forex Trading Signals Software are designed to connect to a database or server that will pass along vital information regarding Forex prevailing market conditions and trends, therefore giving you notice on what actions to take: buy, sell, or pass. For newbie's, this can present a big problem since it demands from them to make trade decisions on their own volition, which in most cases can prove unfavorable due to their inexperience in the market.

Automated Forex Trading Software is best suited for beginners. It takes all the needed market data and based on program parameters to make the necessary trade actions. When the software program sees favorable circumstances to make a profit, it will do so automatically. If and when the market shifts unfavorably and the trade was not as successful as foreseen, the program protects the traders investment by halting trade, only to resume when the market shifts back up again. This is called a "stop loss" program, which is quite useful and integral to trading with Forex trading softwares.

With a Forex Software program installed in your computer system, you can have the luxury of doing other personal matters and other activities and not get tied down in front of your computer looking and straining at the figures, charts, and other Forex trading data's. You can just monitor it from time to time to see how the program is doing in making money for you. So, choose wisely the kind of Forex software program for your trading in order to produce maximum profitable trades. - 23218

About the Author:

1 pip spread forex starts with a desire to learn and a drive to become a great trader. Even forex made easy review takes dedication and a good teacher. But once you learn how to trade and do so successfully your life will change and you have options and financial resources you never had before.