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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Appreciating Momentum

By Chris Blanchet

When it comes to security price momentum, many people will look at the general trend of a security without fully understanding the technical basis of the term. What Momentum really tells us, however, is whether the trend will continue or reverse. Without technical analysis and events like Momentum, many investors would buy high and sell low.

What Is Momentum Similar to the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) oscillator, Momentum measures how much a security's price has changed over a given time. With a understanding of technical analysis and this particular event, investors will understand whether a slight pull back in price is part of the normal fluctuations of stock prices or if it is indeed a bearish signal for the price.

In other words, Momentum allows investors to see the true strength of particular price trend. When relying on multiple technical analysis tools in conjunction with Momentum, investors are better able to understand the true, underlying price trend. Armed with this information, investors can make appropriate changes to their security holdings. Making such important decisions can become difficult at best without the assistance of technical analysis tools.

Calculating Momentum For do-it-yourself investors, completing your own technical analysis can be burdensome thanks to the often complicated mathematical demands needed to pinpoint events and patterns. With Momentum, the math is not all that difficult or involved. Simply, to arrive at a Momentum reading, you take the security's close price and divide it into the close price 10 periods ago, and then multiply it by 100. Or: Close $ /(Close 10 time-periods ago) * 100].

Using Momentum To Make Trade Decisions For help deciding on a Momentum-based trade, the investor must simply determine whether the Momentum value is greater than or less than zero. For amounts higher than zero, the a bullish signal is triggered and for amounts less than zero, a bearish signal is triggered. As a caveat, investors also need to understand that progressively higher low values might suggest a continuation of an existing trend and not a reversal. In most instances, investors should only execute a trade if the price itself turns around (e.g. on a sell, don't sell based on Momentum, but sell when the price begins to fall).

In fact, with most signals derived through technical analysis, investors are advised to use other signals or patterns to confirm or refute a trade opportunity. Momentum is often used to confirm other events or price trends.

Despite Momentum being a fairly simple even to calculate, combining it with a dozen or more other events can become burdensome. Most investors rely on trading software to calculate buying opportunities based on technical analysis. Some trading software will even make simple buy and sell recommendations. While understanding technical analysis is important, completing the work yourself is not. - 23218

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