How Seasonal Patterns Effect Forex Markets?
You as a forex trader can either use fundamental analysis or technical analysis in studying the forex markets and making predictions about the future. The savvier among you will try to combine both in making predictions about the future direction a particular currency is going to follow.
Fundamental analysis uses study of economic forces whether they are financial or socio political that affect currency markets in the long run. Technical analysis also know as Charting studies the past price action charts to make predictions about the future price action in forex markets.
Most of you who have been trading stocks must be familiar with the term: The January Effect. The January Effect is based on an observation that during the last few days of December and the fifth trading day in January stocks tend to perform very well.
There is nothing extraordinary about the January Effect. The effect takes place due to the fact that many investors try to recognize capital gains or losses at the end of the year due to tax reasons. Many corporations also try to window dress their balance sheets at the end of the year.
Seasonality is not peculiar to the stock markets. In fact forex markets also tend to exhibit strong seasonal effects. Seasonality can be defined as a pattern that occurs at a particular period of the year.
The January Effect also takes place in forex markets due to the same reasons. Many investors who are adjusting their stock positions try to convert their local currencies into dollars at that time.
However, dollar shows stronger January Effect in some currency pairs as compared to others. There is a summer effect also. It has also been observed that dollar shows a summer seasonality when it tends to rise in USD/JPY pair and USD/CAD pair in the month of July and give back its gains by August.
There are many seasonal patterns in currency pairs that have been studied in other parts of the year. Now, it does not mean that you should take these effects blindly and trade based on them.
Seasonality only shows that there are strong probabilities that during a particular period of the year, the chances of a certain currency pair going up or down are more pronounced.
In certain years, the effect may be pronounced. Just remember that many economic forces play a role in effecting the currencies so in other years, the seasonal effects may not be so pronounced. As a forex trader, you only need to understand these seasonal effects while trading during that time of the year. - 23218
Fundamental analysis uses study of economic forces whether they are financial or socio political that affect currency markets in the long run. Technical analysis also know as Charting studies the past price action charts to make predictions about the future price action in forex markets.
Most of you who have been trading stocks must be familiar with the term: The January Effect. The January Effect is based on an observation that during the last few days of December and the fifth trading day in January stocks tend to perform very well.
There is nothing extraordinary about the January Effect. The effect takes place due to the fact that many investors try to recognize capital gains or losses at the end of the year due to tax reasons. Many corporations also try to window dress their balance sheets at the end of the year.
Seasonality is not peculiar to the stock markets. In fact forex markets also tend to exhibit strong seasonal effects. Seasonality can be defined as a pattern that occurs at a particular period of the year.
The January Effect also takes place in forex markets due to the same reasons. Many investors who are adjusting their stock positions try to convert their local currencies into dollars at that time.
However, dollar shows stronger January Effect in some currency pairs as compared to others. There is a summer effect also. It has also been observed that dollar shows a summer seasonality when it tends to rise in USD/JPY pair and USD/CAD pair in the month of July and give back its gains by August.
There are many seasonal patterns in currency pairs that have been studied in other parts of the year. Now, it does not mean that you should take these effects blindly and trade based on them.
Seasonality only shows that there are strong probabilities that during a particular period of the year, the chances of a certain currency pair going up or down are more pronounced.
In certain years, the effect may be pronounced. Just remember that many economic forces play a role in effecting the currencies so in other years, the seasonal effects may not be so pronounced. As a forex trader, you only need to understand these seasonal effects while trading during that time of the year. - 23218
About the Author:
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading; stocks and forex. Read about Trend Forex System. Best Forex Signal Service.
posted by X - Men @ 2:25 AM
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